Is the housing market going to crash?

No, the Market Isn’t Crashing — It’s Settling Into a Healthy Pace

If you’ve seen headlines or social media posts predicting a housing crash, it’s easy to feel a little uneasy. But let’s set the record straight — the numbers simply don’t support that idea.

What we’re seeing is slow, steady growth — not a downturn.

Now, of course, real estate is always local. Some areas will see stronger price gains, others might experience small dips. But across the country, experts agree that home values are projected to rise over the next five years — not fall.

What the Experts Are Saying

Every quarter, over 100 leading housing economists and analysts participate in the Home Price Expectations Survey from Fannie Mae. Their latest report shows that prices are expected to keep climbing nationally through at least 2029.

Even the most cautious experts are projecting about a 5% increase, while the optimists expect as much as 26% growth over that same period. The average forecast? Around 15% appreciation over the next five years.

The bottom line: none of these experts are predicting a crash.

A Return to “Normal” Growth

For context, home prices are expected to rise about 2–3.5% per year — a pace that’s slightly below the long-term average of 4–5%, but much more sustainable than the wild spikes we saw in 2020–2022.

Back then, record-low inventory and record-high demand sent prices soaring — sometimes by 15–20% in a single year. What we’re seeing now is a market finally finding balance again.

Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Drop

The simple answer is supply and demand. There still aren’t enough homes available to meet buyer demand, and that ongoing shortage is keeping prices firm.

Even though higher interest rates have made affordability tougher, there are still far more buyers than homes — and that keeps upward pressure on values.

And if you’re worried about the economy, keep this in mind: over the last 50 years, housing has weathered recessions, inflation, and stock market shifts — and it always bounces back. We’re on that recovery curve right now.

The Bottom Line

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a market crash, the data tells a different story. The question isn’t if home prices will rise — it’s how much.

Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling, now’s the time to get the facts about what’s happening right here in your local market. I’m happy to help you make sense of it all and plan your next move confidently.

📞 Let’s connect — and talk about what these forecasts mean for your goals! Susan Baltaragis, Realtor